Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.2%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 122 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 21 Aug 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.2% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 41.5% on 23 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 88.5% on 15 May 2026. $112K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 122 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 21 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 57.5% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 99.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.27K |
| Stakyx | No | 7.44K |
| Melody626 | No | 6.71K |
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-14-special-election-winner
| No |
| 3K |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | No | 2.78K |
| Oklmntrader | No | 645.09 |
| Fearless-Misnomer | No | 500 |
| azu1005 | No | 500 |
| ResolvedMarkets | No | 200 |
| 12345432 | No | 173.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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