Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 59% on 13 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2026 to 23 Sep 2026, the highest close was 100% on 23 Sep 2026 and the lowest 18% on 9 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 66 points up, to 100% on 23 Sep 2026. $45.62K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 12:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 13 Aug 2026 – 23 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | 59.0% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 100.0% |
13 more markets, none above 24.0%.
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GuyFromTinder | No | 259.71 |
| ghorrock | No | 125.58 |
| Gentle-Banking | No | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-a-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-by-december-31-20260812153824803
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 97.42 |
| richyee | No | 90 |
| ironchuck | Yes | 75 |
| CorArm999 | No | 56.72 |
| monoclith | No | 50 |
| sirjhow01 | No | 50 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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