Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 11 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 298 daily closes on record from 11 Mar 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 11% on 16 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Dec 2025. $92.72K traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 298 points, 11 Mar 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2025 | 7.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 266.01 |
| jontra | Yes | 250 |
| 4ksefekts | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-in-2025
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 200 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 100 |
| kamarat | Yes | 100 |
| Bod110 | Yes | 100 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 90 |
| Quiet Beacon FF81 | Yes | 67.73 |
| SergioBello | Yes | 67.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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