Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 23 points from 26% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 317 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29% on 2 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.2%; a month before, 5.4%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 11.5% on 15 Nov 2025.
$29.97 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $215.34K since listing. The order book holds $20.93K, with a 2.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $217.05 bought Yes and $71.44K bought No.
The largest Yes position is frogzu with 539 shares; the largest No position is BlindAndDeaf with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 64.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 10:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 317 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 26.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlindAndDeaf | No | 1.44K |
| frogzu | Yes | 538.57 |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 459.9 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027
| LornaPredicts |
| Yes |
| 440.7 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 407.28 |
| ScientiaRex | No | 387.85 |
| 9df | Yes | 280 |
| lonewolf6012 | No | 227.73 |
| shred7777 | No | 181.62 |
| elmcap2 | No | 177.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
