Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 25 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 24.3% on 4 Mar 2026 and the low 0.2% on 5 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 0.2% on 5 Mar 2026.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 11, 2:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 10 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 2.5% |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| singularityman | Yes | 9.66K |
| lineth | Yes | 7.8K |
| anjiecheng | Yes | 618.2 |
| InsiderrrZ | Yes | 537.63 |
| yattt | Yes | 500 |
| memas | Yes | 255.48 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 199.99 |
| Melody626 | Yes | 199.58 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 165 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 151.65 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with potential runoffs on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. A candidate may win the primary “outright” by winning >50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Republican primary for United States Senator from Texas outright in the first round of this primary election. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a candidate has won outright in the first round may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-candidate-win-outright-in-the-texas-gop-senate-primary
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