Analytics
Yes is at 70%, up 28 points from 41.5% when the market opened on 24 Jun 2026.
Across the 115 daily closes on record from 24 Jun 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 71% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 8% on 8 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 62.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 10% on 26 Jun 2026.
2 (50 bps) is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?”, ahead of 1 (25 bps) at 23.5%.
$10.16K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $198.64K since listing. The order book holds $30.46K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $22.4K bought Yes and $5.75K bought No; the largest was a $3.53K buy of Yes at 70.6¢.
The largest Yes position is simpleman with 28.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 58.7K. Ten wallets hold 80.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 12:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 115 points, 24 Jun 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026 | 41.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 70.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 58.67K |
| simpleman | Yes | 28.67K |
| chunqiu | Yes | 9.88K |
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369
| AlexiosV |
| Yes |
| 8.09K |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | Yes | 6.5K |
| GoldmanSachs | Yes | 6.12K |
| notssf3 | Yes | 4.7K |
| forgetfuldory | No | 4.49K |
| 0xB16B00B5 | No | 3.65K |
| tinman2 | No | 3.47K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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