
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 66% on 27 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 86.5% on 5 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 78% on 4 Jul 2025. $217.5K traded over the market's life.
47 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2025 | 66.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Iknow0 | Yes | 2.26K |
| Thin-Membrane | Yes | 379.99 |
| Seto-KC | Yes | 239.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On June 13, Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by July 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually. Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify. Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-nuclear-talks-resume-before-august
| Yes |
| 195.04 |
| thefman | Yes | 100 |
| qwertzu | Yes | 100 |
| Borba | Yes | 34.25 |
| princetper | Yes | 28.83 |
| elpredictooor | Yes | 28.57 |
| ThatPandaz | Yes | 24.36 |
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