
Resolved No on 16 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 61% on 28 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2026 to 16 Mar 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 16 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 9.5% on 4 Mar 2026. $245.59K traded over the market's life.
63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 17, 3:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Feb 2026 – 16 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | 61.0% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2.85K |
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
| Tony189 | Yes | 1.82K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-833
| Koba24 | Yes | 699.98 |
| cynical.reason | Yes | 497.09 |
| jfm-20 | Yes | 363.45 |
| kamarat | Yes | 350 |
| Irritating-Keeper | Yes | 333.33 |
| LukeAlpha | Yes | 300 |
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