Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 271 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2025 to 9 Jan 2026, the highest close was 34% on 1 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 12.5% on 25 May 2025. $78.34K traded over the market's life.
79 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 10, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 271 points, 15 Apr 2025 – 9 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 17.5% |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| VassanaKlishta | Yes | 9.72K |
| 35b0k | Yes | 4.75K |
| jontra | Yes | 2.41K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025: 1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025). 2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current) Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025. The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-stagflation-in-2025
| Gennedy | Yes | 2K |
| Fitting-Insight | Yes | 557.41 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 491.22 |
| Caliico | Yes | 255.4 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 232 |
| lissartter | Yes | 189.78 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 170 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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