Analytics
Yes is at 7.1%, down 38 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 325 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 2.8% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.2%; a month before, 2.8%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 22.5% on 15 Nov 2025.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $192.29K since listing. The order book holds $1.97K, with a 6.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Get10 with 8.1K shares; the largest No position is Scoofy-Bubik with 7.4K. Ten wallets hold 83.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 2:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 325 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 45.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Get10 | Yes | 8.15K |
| Scoofy-Bubik | No | 7.44K |
| Imbafer | Yes | 6.36K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukraine-before-2027
| dwFqcd4Z |
| No |
| 6.15K |
| Chinuita | No | 1.2K |
| Outsmarter | No | 1K |
| Unwelcome-Opponent | No | 900 |
| probability | Yes | 889.19 |
| ScottyNooo | Yes | 816.19 |
| notap | No | 728.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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