Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, down 25 points from 33.5% when the market opened on 4 Jul 2026.
Across the 112 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 4 Jul 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 3 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12%; a month before, 8.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 22% on 5 Jul 2026.
$30 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.78K since listing. The order book holds $2.27K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $874.53 bought Yes and $7.56K bought No; the largest was a $1.54K buy of No at 84.3¢.
The largest Yes position is PMPD with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is vinii with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 83.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 4 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | 33.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify. The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action. The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-removes-public-access-to-another-anthropic-ai-model-in-2026-20260703203121674
| Bogdan.Whitelist |
| Yes |
| 500 |
| cc416 | Yes | 350 |
| MrMarket | Yes | 317.28 |
| rocky42023 | Yes | 300 |
| Distinct-Kale | No | 278.43 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 250 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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