Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 11 Jan 2026, the highest close was 21.5% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 5.5% on 5 Jan 2026. $510.72K traded over the market's life.
243 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 11:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 11 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 21.5% |
| 11 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | Yes | 30.96K |
| Aaaaaguess | Yes | 10.07K |
| ywresh | Yes | 10.02K |
| TOPredictor | Yes | 5.6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-in-venezuela-again-by
| Blond-Dragon | Yes | 5K |
| jordanmichal | Yes | 2.67K |
| aurelius | Yes | 2.67K |
| armand | Yes | 2.2K |
| shinxe | Yes | 2.19K |
| slipperytubedude | Yes | 2.13K |
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