Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 24% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 95 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 2 Jul 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37.5% on 28 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 34% on 9 May 2026. $54.06K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 95 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 2 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 24.0% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 0.8% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-federally-charges-cuba-leader-miguel-diaz-canel
| Breakable-Bottomline | Yes | 582.22 |
| mirror.of.kalandra | Yes | 237.06 |
| Golden Vector A3C9 | Yes | 234.43 |
| StayYoung | Yes | 223.11 |
| theignat | Yes | 191.88 |
| mangorlica | Yes | 166.67 |
| siick | Yes | 134.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
