Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 9 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 269 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 6.5% on 9 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $138.35K traded over the market's life.
125 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 269 points, 9 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2025 | 6.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jontra | Yes | 3.94K |
| contaaposta | Yes | 1.97K |
| LastChanceSaloon | No | 1.39K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-defaults-on-debt-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| aky8o | Yes | 1.06K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 449.99 |
| peterquelle | Yes | 414.29 |
| eth2 | Yes | 380 |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 333.33 |
| Ladysolsol | Yes | 308.57 |
| kamarat | Yes | 299.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
