US bank failure by September 30?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$57.6K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12% on 13 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 12% on 13 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Oct 2025. $57.56K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 12:46 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 13 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Sep 2025	12.0%
1 Oct 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
cryptoanalyst	Yes	555.17
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	133
lissartter	Yes	118.44
sdglksfdjhgdsflkgjsdh	Yes	20

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 12, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.