
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 18 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 18 Jun 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 44.5% on 30 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 44.5% on 30 Jun 2026. $3.36K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 12:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 18 Jun 2026 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | 38.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sirkomander | Yes | 32.19 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 16.61 |
| Puzzled-Transport | Yes | 14.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-us-by-20260616214856017
| Yes |
| 8.27 |
| Keen Scout EB71 | No | 6.79 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| ghost345678910 | Yes | 5 |
| 67sfds | Yes | 3.32 |
| Silver-Stupidity | Yes | 2.81 |
| dsoisoij | Yes | 1.24 |
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