Analytics
Yes is at 24%, up 15 points from 8.5% when the market opened on 8 Oct 2026.
Across the 12 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 8 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 20% on 13 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Ukraine coup attempt by...?”.
$1.95K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $23.34K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $268.09 bought Yes and $432.92 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 1K shares; the largest No position is vladius3 with 682.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 11:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 24.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30
| trx1 |
| No |
| 67.5 |
| dogpsychology | No | 25.16 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 21.7 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 21 |
| S888 | No | 20 |
| BetsAhead | Yes | 16.67 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 9.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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