Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 9 points from 15.5% when the market opened on 26 Jun 2026.
The high was 16.5% on 25 Jul 2026 and the low 1.9% on 25 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 5.1%; a month ago, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 16.5% on 25 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Ukraine coup attempt by...?”.
$100 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $153.53K since listing. The order book holds $51.63K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 413 trades, $780.35 bought Yes and $62.37K bought No; the largest was a $1.06K buy of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is SoloVad with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is justme003 with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 86% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 71 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 10:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 26 Jun 2026 – 22 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | 15.5% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| justme003 | No | 1.28K |
| SoloVad | Yes | 1.19K |
| Gluckyklucky | No | 329.77 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 205.27 |
| antoo111 | Yes | 180.52 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 149.25 |
| WinterCumer | Yes | 66.55 |
| Smartik | No | 62.18 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 54.99 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 54 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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