Analytics
Yes is at 4.8%, down 20 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
The high was 59.5% on 26 Dec 2025 and the low 3.5% on 4 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 4.5%; a month ago, 6%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 57.5% on 15 Dec 2025.
$224.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $169.22K since listing. The order book holds $39.28K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.31K bought Yes and $8.74K bought No; the largest was a $2.24K sell of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 881112 with 15.3K shares; the largest No position is KrackenSruster with 37.7K. Ten wallets hold 67.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 17, 6:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 323 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 17 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 24.5% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 4.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster | No | 37.65K |
| 881112 | Yes | 15.33K |
| Jerzy | Yes | 8.14K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-before-2027
| Mellow-Cod |
| No |
| 6.34K |
| mombil | Yes | 6.05K |
| How.Dare.You | No | 5.56K |
| TheManInTheSky | Yes | 2.61K |
| bnetopt | Yes | 2.5K |
| DumplingBMF | No | 2.26K |
| Allcap | Yes | 2.13K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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