Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 47 points from 50% when the market opened on 27 Aug 2026.
Across the 58 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76.5% on 15 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 28 Oct 2026. The current quote, 2.6%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 3.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 20.5% on 28 Aug 2026.
$76.4 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $32.43K since listing. The order book holds $572.51, with a 1.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 320 trades, $1.33K bought Yes and $8.55K bought No; the largest was a $1.91K sell of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is hahahaha123456 with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is Mr-Krabs with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 80.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mr-Krabs | No | 2.18K |
| hahahaha123456 | Yes | 1.54K |
| Neon Oracle A8A9 | No | 1.04K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness or Situational Awareness LP announces, or a consensus of credible reporting confirms, that it has received new outside investor capital by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Capital from existing investors and capital from new investors will both qualify. Capital contributed by Situational Awareness, its principals, or its employees will not qualify. Only capital actually contributed will qualify. Announcements of plans to raise, soft commitments, and signed subscriptions not yet funded will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/situational-awareness-raises-new-capital-by-august-31-20260730182353379
| RolandChang |
| Yes |
| 792.83 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 600 |
| notssf3 | No | 500 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 349.23 |
| iHaveBeenPwned | No | 345 |
| Somber-Ice | Yes | 250 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 237.87 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
