Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?” is a geopolitics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Saudi airspace closed by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Nov 1, 2026 UTC. As of Oct 1, 2:19 AM UTC, Yes trades at 6.5¢, a 6.5% implied chance, $3.39K traded in the last 24 hours, $29.57K resting in the order book, a 1.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 12 daily price points from Sep 21, 2026 UTC to Oct 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 6.0% and 14.0%); 41 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 88.8% of the loaded shares; 119 recent public fills from 71 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 12 points · 21 Sep 2026 – 1 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026 | 14.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| memecoinerrr | No | 3.26K |
| Fullvie | Yes | 2.38K |
| paddaa | No |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before market creation; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before market creation, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 2.1K |
| AiBird | Yes | 2.07K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 599.99 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 300 |
| thoodr | No | 280 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 279 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 201 |
| rocky42014 | Yes | 199.78 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
