Analytics
Yes is at 84.5%, up 11 points from 73.5% when the market opened on 19 Jun 2026.
Across the 132 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 85.5% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 30.5% on 18 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 73%; a month before, 68.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 59.5% on 4 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?”.
$669.74 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $506.77K since listing. The order book holds $27.64K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $21.78K bought Yes and $3.34K bought No; the largest was a $3.56K buy of Yes at 74.0¢.
The largest Yes position is trx1 with 7.8K shares; the largest No position is 1nvoker1 with 6.3K. Ten wallets hold 43.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 132 points, 19 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2026 | 73.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 84.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trx1 | Yes | 7.83K |
| 1nvoker1 | No | 6.33K |
| Outsmarter | Yes | 5.9K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716
| ihorkoval |
| No |
| 5.02K |
| tetrose | No | 4.47K |
| accessability | Yes | 4.09K |
| Romkos7 | Yes | 4K |
| Warren-Buffett | Yes | 3.75K |
| ev1710 | Yes | 3K |
| tr1000 | No | 2.76K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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