
Yes is at 57.5%, up 4.5 points from 53% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
The high was 57.5% on 22 Oct 2026 and the low 53% on 21 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?”.
$466.03 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.66K since listing. The order book holds $273.4, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 49 trades, $470.61 bought Yes and $225.94 bought No.
The largest Yes position is melonmanm with 300 shares; the largest No position is AJSV with 143. Ten wallets hold 84.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 1:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026, chart shows 50%–62%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 53.0% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 57.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| melonmanm | Yes | 300 |
| AJSV | No | 143.3 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 100 |
Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless OpenAI confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261019
| Faston |
| Yes |
| 90 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 88.3 |
| smellyEllie | Yes | 71.87 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 55 |
| NoTeacher | No | 51.93 |
| kakprotrades | No | 50 |
| estoicc | Yes | 40 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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