Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 75.8%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 11 Jan 2026, the highest close was 24.3% on 11 Jan 2026 and the lowest 19.5% on 10 Jan 2026. $192.37K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 13, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 11 Jan 2026, chart shows 15%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | 19.5% |
| 11 Jan 2026 | 24.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rufat | Yes | 23.55K |
| DM213 | Yes | 12.16K |
| gorkgrok | Yes | 5.51K |
| Detailed-Bone | Yes | 2.4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 2-hour period between 12:00 PM and 1:59 PM ET on January 11, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant two-hour window. This will display the two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/odds-of-khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31-over-30-on-sunday
| Zeeqit | Yes | 2K |
| Flamboyant-Aside | Yes | 2K |
| Kawi | Yes | 1.74K |
| glubber | Yes | 1.25K |
| Rural-Electricity | Yes | 1K |
| ElChucoSiempre | Yes | 839.74 |
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