Analytics
The Labour side is at 50%, down 10 points from 60% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 180 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 27.5% on 19 Jul 2026. A week before that last close the Labour side was at 50%; a month before, 58%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 34.5% on 8 May 2026.
$305.26 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.13K, with a 18.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Labour position is xtxpleasecallme with 50 shares; the largest National position is tristanb with 22.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:27 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Labour price, Polymarket CLOB, 180 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Labour price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 60.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Labour | 50.09 |
| tristanb | National | 21.76 |
| conherence | National | 20 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election. This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election. Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nz-election-labour-v-national-of-party-list-vote
| silverstud | National | 9.38 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | National | 6.97 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Labour | 5 |
| buddom | Labour | 4.37 |
| TheYoloist | National | 1.35 |
| 48xsds | National | 0.21 |
| 86fgh | Labour | 0.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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