Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69.5%. Yes opened at 60% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 69% on 14 Feb 2026 and the lowest 19% on 14 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 48% on 16 Jan 2026. $233.13K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 1, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 60.0% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 30.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeDelta | Yes | 1.57K |
| Athletic-Sender | Yes | 557.88 |
| esac | Yes | 400.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Another US strike on Venezuela - US strikes Iran - US strike on Colombia - US strike on Mexico - US strike on Cuba Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHUSStrike.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-us-strike-edition
| Yes |
| 350 |
| kamarat | Yes | 350 |
| flowfever | Yes | 320 |
| oak | Yes | 230.08 |
| Old-Oasis | Yes | 217.39 |
| Realdeed | Yes | 187.5 |
| Royal Sphinx BDDC | Yes | 150.17 |
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