Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 47 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 118 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 75% on 1 Aug 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 11%. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 75% on 1 Aug 2026.
$16.53K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.38K, with a 1.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 214 trades, $697.93 bought Yes and $7.23K bought No; the largest was a $2.09K buy of No at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Nadmi with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is knrad with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 80.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/no-confidence-vote-against-spain-pm-sanchez-by-june-30
| LornaPredicts |
| Yes |
| 748.91 |
| Better-Goodness | Yes | 556.94 |
| GenaCyberpunk | No | 494.29 |
| vinii | No | 454.89 |
| nikos.paixtis | No | 390 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 258.69 |
| eratoxtenex | No | 247.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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