
Yes is at 13.5%, down 2.5 points from 16% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 66 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.5% on 22 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 59.5%; a month before, 84.5%. Its largest one-day move was 68 points up, to 84% on 16 Aug 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?”.
$155.26 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.78K since listing. The order book holds $392.02, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 209 trades, $2.48K bought Yes and $1.91K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Contentious-Dinnerdate with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is SnapElectionAvoider with 2.4K. Ten wallets hold 76.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 16.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 2.42K |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 1.2K |
| haruka77 | No | 889.28 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Z.ai, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-zptai-glm-5pt4-released-byptptpt
| 2Sherlock | Yes | 698.86 |
| slkdjkljnkngeljklj | Yes | 596.77 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 469.5 |
| recallcp | No | 401.87 |
| MineYours | Yes | 399.99 |
| sunnybank | No | 282.23 |
| Vincent-CZ | Yes | 212.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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