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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No | buy | 522.94 | $0.080 | $41.84 | Aug 6, 2026 |
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| sell |
| 700 |
| $0.166 |
| $115.99 |
| Aug 6, 2026 |
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | sell | 109.7 | $0.736 | $80.78 | Jul 25, 2026 |
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | buy | 405.35 | $0.533 | $215.88 | Jul 25, 2026 |
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?Yes | buy | 16.98 | $0.960 | $16.3 | Jul 24, 2026 |
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | buy | 221 | $0.466 | $103.06 | Jul 24, 2026 |
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes | sell | 160 | $0.163 | $26.15 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes | buy | 214 | $0.118 | $25.34 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 251 | $0.022 | $5.52 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 251 | $0.873 | $219.13 | Jul 10, 2026 |
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 325.51 | $0.430 | $139.97 | Jul 10, 2026 |
Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes | buy | 3.58K | $0.999 | $3.58K | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 169.38 | $0.057 | $9.71 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 154.82 | $0.105 | $16.24 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.830 | $24.9 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.510 | $25.5 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes | buy | 7.57K | $0.998 | $7.55K | Jul 1, 2026 |
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes | buy | 206 | $0.999 | $205.78 | Jul 1, 2026 |
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.18K | $0.999 | $10.17K | Jun 17, 2026 |
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 3.42K | $0.999 | $3.41K | Jun 12, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | sell | 9.48K | $0.999 | $9.47K | Apr 1, 2026 |
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes | sell | 104.25 | $0.999 | $104.15 | Apr 1, 2026 |
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes | sell | 1.31K | $0.001 | $1.31 | Apr 1, 2026 |
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No | buy | 1K | $0.020 | $20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?No | buy | 1K | $0.080 | $79.56 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 88.53 | $0.710 | $62.86 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 151.43 | $0.700 | $106 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?No | buy | 70 | $0.390 | $27.3 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | buy | 288 | $0.850 | $244.8 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 10 | $0.630 | $6.3 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 900 | $0.640 | $575.9 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 700 | $0.918 | $642.59 | Mar 31, 2026 |
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No | sell | 98.9 | $0.995 | $98.41 | Mar 31, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 86.99 | $0.850 | $73.94 | Mar 30, 2026 |
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No | buy | 98.9 | $0.910 | $90 | Mar 30, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 500 | $0.850 | $425 | Mar 30, 2026 |
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No | sell | 330 | $0.046 | $15.18 | Mar 30, 2026 |
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes | buy | 29.77 | $0.857 | $25.52 | Mar 29, 2026 |
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes | buy | 104.25 | $0.959 | $100 | Mar 29, 2026 |
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No | buy | 10.11 | $0.840 | $8.49 | Mar 29, 2026 |
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes | buy | 151.15 | $0.644 | $97.37 | Mar 29, 2026 |
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes | buy | 513.06 | $0.861 | $441.71 | Mar 29, 2026 |