
Yes is at 93%, up 43 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 Sep 2026.
The high was 93.5% on 18 Sep 2026 and the low 50% on 1 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 88%; a month ago, 68%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 88.5% on 10 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...?”.
$599.74 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $225.13, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is molodoyy with 248 shares; the largest No position is AJSV with 90.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 86 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 1:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 38 points · 1 Sep 2026 – 7 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 93.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| molodoyy | Yes | 247.8 |
| AJSV | No | 89.55 |
| predictdogepepewif | No | 40 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Flash," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Flash tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Flash or Qwen3.8-Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Flash, while models whose name does not include "Flash" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Flash, Qwen3.8-Plus, or Qwen3.9-Max, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen3-coder-flash, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-qwen-flash-3pt9-released-byptptpt
| GuyFromTinder |
| No |
| 20 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | No | 20 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 20 |
| D222222222 | No | 20 |
| Miaomi666 | No | 20 |
| pppnn | No | 12.36 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 10.91 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page