Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 46 points from 50% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 74.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4.4% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.5%; a month before, 44.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 74.5% on 29 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?”.
$55.63 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.86K since listing. The order book holds $1.24K, with a 2.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE with 389 shares; the largest No position is lisra with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lisra | No | 1.43K |
| K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE | Yes | 389.3 |
| AJSV | Yes | 375.27 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by
| Dr.PNL |
| Yes |
| 129 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 103.64 |
| mehanizator | No | 99.27 |
| Silver Atlas DDDA | Yes | 90.63 |
| Cheerful-Nucleotidase | Yes | 83.33 |
| Dufa14 | Yes | 75.15 |
| Bitgod | No | 59.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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