Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 30 points from 33% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 33% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 23 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 2.9% on 23 Oct 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?”.
$3.49K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.09K since listing. The order book holds $2.87K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is lukesky1 with 736 shares; the largest No position is The-Joker with 695. Ten wallets hold 68.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Oct 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 10:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 33.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt
| Gardox- |
| Yes |
| 246.67 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | 242 |
| 42021 | Yes | 215.53 |
| AJSV | Yes | 187.72 |
| Dapsy | No | 150 |
| Dud3 | No | 150 |
| fiter | Yes | 143.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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