Analytics
Yes is at 52%, down 13 points from 64.5% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 33% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 40.5%. Its largest one-day move was 44 points up, to 76.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
January 31 is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?”, ahead of December 31 at 43.5%.
$80 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.37K since listing. The order book holds $355.52, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 54 trades, $282.89 bought Yes and $306.71 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 72 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 287.
Trading closes on 31 Jan 2027, 96 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 64.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 286.86 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 72.21 |
| dedidanc | Yes | 64.64 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20260929100500000
| cat6767 |
| Yes |
| 60 |
| Xeny | Yes | 40 |
| cloverpmq2 | Yes | 40 |
| braindance | Yes | 20 |
| pegasus7 | Yes | 20 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 20 |
| Flingflonger | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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