Analytics
Yes is at 11%, down 40 points from 51% when the market opened on 1 Jan 2026.
Across the 269 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 17%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 40% on 1 Mar 2026.
$180.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $251.19K since listing. The order book holds $947.81, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.07K bought Yes and $5.8K bought No; the largest was a $1.53K buy of No at 80.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Royal Oracle 34B5 with 5K shares; the largest No position is zin51p with 8.8K. Ten wallets hold 53% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 8:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 269 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 51.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zin51p | No | 8.78K |
| Royal Oracle 34B5 | Yes | 4.99K |
| usurper55 | No | 2.27K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/natural-disaster-in-2026
| ourdemocracy2 |
| No |
| 2.19K |
| Political-Baobab | No | 1.8K |
| xor7 | Yes | 1.34K |
| canopgdsapfsdangsdfa | Yes | 1.1K |
| atomicannie | Yes | 1.1K |
| goatboss | Yes | 1.09K |
| johndoez | No | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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