Analytics
Yes is at 82.5%, down 3.5 points from 86% when the market opened on 8 Oct 2026.
Across the 14 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 52% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 63.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 62% on 11 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Muse Charm released by...?”.
$1.21 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.43K since listing. The order book holds $940.53, with a 15.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 77 trades, $792.52 bought Yes and $183.8 bought No.
The largest Yes position is KimchiCapital with 262 shares; the largest No position is samsonaltman with 197.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 12:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 86.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 83.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KimchiCapital | Yes | 261.73 |
| samsonaltman | No | 196.62 |
| AJSV | No | 171.94 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta officially releases the Muse Charm by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Muse Charm" refers to the device unveiled by Meta on September 23, 2026, including its final commercial version under any name or branding. Any name change or rebranding of the Muse Charm will have no bearing on this market's resolution. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public in the United States and shipments to public customers or availability for customer pickup must have begun by the specified deadline. Availability in selected US locations or in limited quantities will qualify. Access restricted to selected testers or invitees will not qualify. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements and product pages from Meta; however, availability information from authorized retailers or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/muse-charm-released-by
| cigarettes |
| Yes |
| 121.88 |
| Umaroth | Yes | 120 |
| 2B9S | No | 49.23 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 30 |
| LonelyScissors | No | 21.54 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | No | 20 |
| kakprotrades | No | 19.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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