Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 11 points from 13% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 15% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Lai Ching-te visits US by...?”.
$21.01 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.81K since listing. The order book holds $11.07K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 30 trades, $15.78 bought Yes and $1.11K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Numitus1994 with 452 shares; the largest No position is 0xrc with 1K. Ten wallets hold 93.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 11:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 13.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xrc | No | 1.02K |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 451.97 |
| Perypery | Yes | 211.01 |
If Lai Ching-te visits the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Lai Ching-te physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Lai Ching-te enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or Taiwan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-visits-us-by
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 167.91 |
| zenba | No | 111.11 |
| napamen | Yes | 50 |
| UTILIZADOR2 | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 40 |
| predictdogepepewif | Yes | 40 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 28.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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