Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 43 points from 47% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
Across the 268 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 8 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3.3% on 11 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%; a month before, 3.6%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 14.5% on 9 Jan 2026.
$313.37 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $108.8K since listing. The order book holds $11.96K, with a 4.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $390.96 bought Yes and $35.67K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Nadmi with 848 shares; the largest No position is 0xrc with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 47% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 268 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 47.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026
| Caelum-Galyon |
| Yes |
| 795.05 |
| v.l | No | 666.29 |
| Ollopalos | No | 509.46 |
| rocky42024 | Yes | 476.67 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 475.95 |
| KLccKris | Yes | 437.8 |
| Hermnann | No | 415.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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