Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 78 points from 80% when the market opened on 20 Nov 2025.
Across the 308 daily closes on record from 20 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (36 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84.5% on 20 Dec 2025 and the lowest 2.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 3.7%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 22% on 19 Mar 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Kraken IPO closing market cap above ___ ?”.
$18.18K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.06K, with a 3.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 370 trades, $1.36K bought Yes and $3.49K bought No.
The largest Yes position is rocky42017 with 452 shares; the largest No position is XieGuangKun with 871. Ten wallets hold 68.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 308 points, 20 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2025 | 80.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| XieGuangKun | No | 871.28 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 689.54 |
| rocky42017 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kraken-ipo-closing-market-cap-above
| Yes |
| 451.99 |
| tryingmyluckhere | No | 210 |
| acal | Yes | 198.31 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 191.06 |
| BASSATS01 | Yes | 187.32 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 140.83 |
| 5atka | Yes | 119.13 |
| banan | Yes | 109.88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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