Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 75% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 14 May 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 14 May 2026 and the lowest 28% on 23 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 78.5% on 25 Apr 2026. $524.81K traded over the market's life.
229 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 14, 8:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 14 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 75.0% |
| 14 May 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15
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