Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 72%. Yes opened at 67.5% on 27 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 27 May 2026 to 29 May 2026, the highest close was 72% on 29 May 2026 and the lowest 52.5% on 28 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 72% on 29 May 2026. $168.76K traded over the market's life.
82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 30, 7:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 27 May 2026 – 29 May 2026, chart shows 40%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 67.5% |
| 29 May 2026 | 72.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| autisem | No | 1.37K |
| Chucklehuck | No | 1K |
| HerrieDavis | No | 850.5 |
| BikesAreTheBikes | No | 650.61 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31
| fgdhdghrthr | No | 607 |
| Asphalt44 | No | 597.86 |
| sacrecoeur | No | 377.49 |
| a4385 | No | 300 |
| Anjun | No | 111 |
| Kotsios94 | No | 88.97 |
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