
Resolved Yes on 14 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.4%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 30 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2026 to 14 May 2026, the highest close was 97.4% on 14 May 2026 and the lowest 39.5% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 92% on 8 May 2026. $217.24K traded over the market's life.
100 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 15, 10:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 30 Apr 2026 – 14 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2026 | 49.5% |
| 14 May 2026 | 97.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 7.66K |
| ABWVEEN | No | 3.49K |
| toutiege | No | 2.09K |
| LukeDelta | No | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31
| uutest | No | 1.53K |
| Front-Notebook | No | 1.05K |
| TUNGTUNGTUNGTUNGTUNGTUNGSAHUR | No | 1K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | No | 960 |
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | No | 662.48 |
| nikitaxce | No | 600 |
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