Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-or-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-first