Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 74%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 89 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 74% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 28.5% on 9 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 61.5% on 7 Jan 2026. $833.31K traded over the market's life.
165 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 1, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 89 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 39.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 74.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | No | 201.48K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 16.55K |
| Lasting-Dessert | No | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026
| lissartter |
| No |
| 1.64K |
| GollumGekko | No | 1.52K |
| mr-green-tea | No | 1.3K |
| 0x8712 | No | 800 |
| wallet-2 | No | 500 |
| VibeyQuant | No | 500 |
| cicai | No | 430 |
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