Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92%. Yes opened at 25% on 28 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25% on 28 Aug 2025 and the low 2.8% on 15 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 12.5% on 29 Aug 2025. $41.85K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 17, 8:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 28 Aug 2025 – 16 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | 25.0% |
| 16 Sep 2025 | 8.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 5K |
| WhatTheHelly | Yes | 1.28K |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 828.57 |
| S888 | Yes | 743.95 |
| zoldado | Yes | 683.01 |
| Insidiuos | Yes | 544.51 |
| lissartter | Yes | 298.11 |
| BenjaminNetAnYahoo | Yes | 266.67 |
| sargon | Yes | 165.29 |
| CineMa | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between August 27, 7:20 PM ET, and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-damascus-by-setpember-15
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
