Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 20 points from 23.5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 318 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 2.9% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.3%; a month before, 4.7%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 12.5% on 15 Nov 2025.
$6.4K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.43M since listing. The order book holds $117.55K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.84K bought Yes and $64.87K bought No; the largest was a $6.56K sell of No at 96.1¢.
The largest Yes position is D33pCynic with 127.5K shares; the largest No position is MEPP with 83.4K. Ten wallets hold 52.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 3:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 318 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 23.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027
| Muddy-Yin |
| Yes |
| 31.88K |
| TronOG | No | 28.71K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 28.13K |
| gods-eye | Yes | 24.58K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 23.1K |
| zb8 | No | 21.92K |
| Volku | Yes | 20.09K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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