Analytics
Yes is at 26%, up 6.5 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 11 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 29% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 29% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Ilhan Omar arrested by...?”.
$6.64K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $31.09K since listing. The order book holds $19.23K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 288 trades, $2.37K bought Yes and $8.39K bought No; the largest was a $2.54K buy of No at 82.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Cainez with 2.4K shares; the largest No position is tetrase with 4.4K. Ten wallets hold 77.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 11:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tetrase | No | 4.43K |
| Cainez | Yes | 2.45K |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 1.85K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ilhan-omar-arrested-byptptpt
| difrisco |
| Yes |
| 1.71K |
| melonmanm | Yes | 1.62K |
| maritime6307 | Yes | 1.39K |
| propunter3421 | Yes | 1.11K |
| aliaspopeye | No | 766 |
| MrMarket | Yes | 758.22 |
| leectram2 | Yes | 621.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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