Analytics
Yes is at 97.8%, up 54 points from 44% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.8% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 44% on 1 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 87.5%. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 91% on 2 Oct 2026.
<14 is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in October 2026?”, ahead of 16 at 11.8%.
$1.84 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.56K since listing. The order book holds $441.68, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 84 trades, $1.57K bought Yes and $90.44 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Winged-Holder with 711 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 639. Ten wallets hold 93.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 44.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 97.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 711.23 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 638.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 484.93 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches. In the case of missing or erroneous data from spacex.com, this market will remain open until November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates. If spacex.com has not updated by November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-october-2026-20260928t160000000z
| anonymousbtcuser1000 | Yes | 417.44 |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0. | No | 336.54 |
| anonymoususer10 | Yes | 283 |
| cosmicsteaks | Yes | 161.41 |
| JackMa01 | Yes | 149.02 |
| qqqppp-l1 | No | 141.92 |
| VonVonagh | No | 43.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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