Analytics
Yes is at 9.6%, down 35 points from 44.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5% on 8 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12.6%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 6% on 2 Oct 2026.
16 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in October 2026?”. <14 leads at 97.8%; 15 is at 2.5%.
$34.99 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $807.57 since listing. The order book holds $292.22, with a 18.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 22 trades, $15.95 bought Yes and $445.01 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 445 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 639.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 44.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 11.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 638.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 444.58 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 150 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches. In the case of missing or erroneous data from spacex.com, this market will remain open until November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates. If spacex.com has not updated by November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-october-2026-20260928t160000000z
| rrgtrtrgr | Yes | 12.83 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 8.68 |
| E23Lowriajksb9182912-as-q | Yes | 6.66 |
| merod | Yes | 5.05 |
| haveagoodday | Yes | 0.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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