Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 44 points from 46.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12.6%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 7.5% on 2 Oct 2026.
15 ranks third of the 5 outcomes in “How many SpaceX launches in October 2026?”. <14 leads at 97.8%; 16 is at 13%.
$40.21 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $855.34 since listing. The order book holds $173.59, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 24 trades, $16.63 bought Yes and $530.45 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 412 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 639.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 46.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 638.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 411.61 |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f. | Yes | 150 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches. In the case of missing or erroneous data from spacex.com, this market will remain open until November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates. If spacex.com has not updated by November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-october-2026-20260928t160000000z
| mustbethewater | Yes | 50 |
| matgul | No | 40.21 |
| a5533 | Yes | 28.31 |
| rrgtrtrgr | Yes | 27.7 |
| cigarettes | No | 20 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 8.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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