Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 22 points from 31% when the market opened on 17 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 17 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 11.5% on 28 Oct 2026.
$406.46 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.05K since listing. The order book holds $14.03K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 202 trades, $1.1K bought Yes and $2.75K bought No.
The largest Yes position is supersmard with 818 shares; the largest No position is flexibleagedbeef with 526. Ten wallets hold 80.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 17 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| supersmard | Yes | 818.27 |
| flexibleagedbeef | No | 525.72 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 513.76 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D)'s hourly odds value is higher than Roger Marshall (R)'s hourly odds value in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Adam Hamilton (D) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Adam Hamilton (D) or Roger Marshall (R) in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-kansas-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
| Antony82 | No | 500.64 |
| Mandalorec | No | 288 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 159 |
| Careerchanger | Yes | 139.1 |
| K80PRO | No | 127.01 |
| estoicc | No | 106.67 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 81.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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